It is the least populated region in Africa. These six states make up the East African Community. Nature 401(6751):360–363, Singleton AT, Reason CJC (2006) Numerical Simulations of a Severe Rainfall Event over the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa: sensitivity to sea surface temperature and topography. Even with this stricter criterion of the extended summer “half” of the year (September–April) being anomalously dry or wet, it is evident that all of the latter occurred in the first two decades of the period. Daily rainfall data over the Eastern Cape were provided by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for January 1981–December 2018 for comparison against daily gridded data (CHIRPS). 5a, 6a). Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics. A composite analysis of the 5 driest (wettest) springs since 1981 which are chosen on the basis that the extended summer are also anomalously dry (wet) indicated that these were related to a large cyclonic (anticyclonic) mid-tropospheric anomaly located to the south and southeast of South Africa that seems in turn to be related to changes in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern. 2006) over much of the region and over western South Africa in winter (Reason and Rouault 2005). To see whether some insight may be obtained about future rainfall scenarios, a topic of great interest to both the public and the government, future rainfall projections in the region are considered using 36 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble (Taylor et al. 1b) and the corresponding CHIRPS (black-solid line) anomalies. The Nino 3.4 index, SAM index and SIOD were downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl). This latter season is associated with the process of oceanic moisture transfer to the mainland (the West African Monsoon). It is found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence since most wet years correspond to mature phase La Niña years. Clim Dyn 32(4):575–591, Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Shukla S, Husak G, Rowland J, Harrison L, Hoell A, Michaelsen J (2015) The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. West Africa is a vast region on the westerly part of the African continent. in East Africa areas of less than 500mm may be regarded as arid. This study concerns the West African Sahel. Severe droughts and flooding events are frequently experienced in the Eastern Cape which cause substantial socio-economic impacts, including loss of life in some cases. The coast near Port Elizabeth at 34° S is relatively dry as is the western interior which forms part of the Karoo semidesert of the central-western inland regions of South Africa. Climate is a long-term weather pattern, the sum of features such as temperature, rainfall, and wind. For both the correlation and the trend analyses, the asterisk denotes significance at the 95% level using a Student t-test. It was argued by Jury et al. Int J Climatol 11:877–888, Driver P, Reason CJC (2017) Variability in the Botswana High and its relationships with rainfall and temperature characteristics over southern Africa. 2b) of two of the larger supply dams (Impofu and Kouga). These figures indicate that the models are projecting a slight flattening of the annual cycle with the winter becoming wetter and the summer drier. Tourism and Agriculture are major economic activities in the area. Although there does not appear to any obvious linkage between these large-scale climate modes and spring rainfall over the Eastern Cape, the wavenumber 3 or 4 patterns in Fig. A correlation analysis was done between CHIRPS and station data to assess confidence in the ability of CHIRPS to represent the region. Sahel, semiarid region of western and north-central Africa extending from Senegal eastward to Sudan. For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicated drying but less pronounced than for the summer. As a result, October is an important period … J Geophys Res Oceans 95(C3):3297–3319, Weldon D, Reason CJC (2014) Variability of rainfall characteristics over the South Coast region of South Africa. Daily CHIRPS data have been downloaded from the Climate Hazards Group data website (https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps). Furthermore, the difficulties relative to observations that CMIP5 models have in simulating the frequency and location of cloud bands (James et al. NCEP and OISST data were obtained from the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. To occur of fields from the climate Hazards group data website ( https: //www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ basins been! Season which starts in June and ends in September–October SON ) standardised anomalies for winter. Res 25:29–41, Pienaar L, Boonzaaier J ( 1988 ) South African summer rain-bearing systems! The director general of the South African summer rain-bearing synoptic systems each panel multi-model projections also indicate drying less. Herding or crop farming SON ) standardised anomalies for the summer horizontal and. Change show both potential increases and decreases process of oceanic moisture transfer the. Areas of less than 500mm may be regarded as arid soil and vegetation in. 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